Scenario analysis as a decision-support tool: a maritime patrol case study

Authors

  • André Negrão Costa Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEAv) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2309-9248
  • Rafael Lemos Paes Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEAv)
  • Marcelo Zawadzki Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEAv)
  • Diego Geraldo Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEAv)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55972/spectrum.v22i1.318

Keywords:

Maritime Patrol , Scenario Analys , Optimization

Abstract

This article argued for the use of scenario analysis as a decision-support tool, regarding incentives and investments on either the development or the acquisition of new military systems. In particular, it presented a study on the maritime patrol operations scenario with the availability of synthetic aperture radar satellite images during its planning process. Through a proper analysis, the images may serve as a powerful subsidy for enhancing mission effectiveness and reducing costs. The effectiveness may be measured by the number of encountered vessels and the cost reductions may come from the fewer flight hours necessary for the mission through path optimization. As a conclusion, not only it was possible to observe clear improvements on the mission success, but also the potential this kind of analysis has for force sizing and capability development.

References

Paes, R.L., Lorenzzetti, J.A., Gherardi, D.F.M., “Patrulha marítima apoiada por técnicas de extração de informações de dados de satélites”, Simpósio de Guerra Eletrônica (SIGE), São José dos Campos, 2006.

Chen, Y. W., Lu, Y. Z., Chen, P., “Optimization with extremal dynamics for the traveling salesman problem”, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 385(1), 115-123, 2007.

Yang, J., Shi, X., Marchese, M., Liang, Y., “An ant colony optimization method for generalized TSP problem”, Progress in Natural Science, 18, 11, 1417-1422, 2008.

Xu, Z., Xu, L., Rodrigues, B., “An analysis of the extended Christofides heuristic for the k-depot TSP”, Operations Research Letter, 39, 3, 218-223, 2011.

Meer, K., “Simulated Annealing versus Metropolis for a TSP instance”, Information Processing Letters, 104, 6, 216-219, 2007.

Boettcher, S., Percus, A. G., “Extremal optimization: and evolutionary local-search algorithm”, Operations Research/ Computer Science Interfaces Series, 21, 61-77, 2003.

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Published

2021-09-30

How to Cite

[1]
A. Negrão Costa, R. Lemos Paes, M. Zawadzki, and D. Geraldo, “Scenario analysis as a decision-support tool: a maritime patrol case study”, Spectrum, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 30–34, Sep. 2021.

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Section

Operational Analysis and Logistics Engineering

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