Life Cycle Cost
A Prospective Calculation Method and Sensitivity Analysis to Reliability and Maintainability Factors
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55972/spectrum.v24i1.392Keywords:
Life Cycle Cost, Complex Systems, Simulation & Modelling, Sensitivity Analysis, RAMS FactorsAbstract
Forecasting life cycle costs of complex Defence systems for the purpose of operations and logistics planning is an ever more critical task in face of increasingly strict budgetary constraints. The uncertainty involved in the calculations is a specially difficult challenge in the case of new projects given the inexistence of historical data to support the estimates. This paper proposes a new method to prospectively calculate Life Cycle Cost and Fligh-Hour Cost based on a bottom-up approach that compiles costs inherent to elementary support processes through modelling and simulation of the target system using OPUS© suite. In order to illustrate the method, a case study was built based on a Brazilian Air Force programme, which also yielded a sensitivity analysis of the life cycle cost elements to Reliability and Maintainability.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Danilo Garcia Figueiredo Pinto, Fernando Abrahão
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